Earlier this year Goldman Sacks published it’s 2023 Global Economics Report on the potential affects of Artificial Intelligence on Economic Growth. This report highlights the significant turning point that cutting edge generalized, versus specialized AI represents; in the forms of Generative AI such platforms as ChatGPT, LaMDA, and MidJourney represent.
We’re all used to Machine Learning intelligence such as image recognition, recommendation (i.e. we’ve know who you are and think item X would be of interest to you) engines, facial recognition; but these are point focus solutions [Read about the fundamental differences here.] These generalized capabilities unlock a vast spectrum of opportunities as they allow free form input with easy to use tools.
Displacement versus Expansion
The Goldman report provides the expected in-depth analysis, which we will leave to the reader. But what seems most compelling overall is their position of “Substitute Sometimes, Complement Often”.
Substitution is exactly that. The report identified that first, 7% of work might be automated by AI, with Office Administrative and Legal work being most heavily at risk. These sectors risk outright displacement.
Secondly, 63% of work is more likely to be complemented by AI. This means that job roles and expectations will also likely to expand. For now some are “Experimenting” with AI, but as employers begin to themselves understand these systems and tools, this usage will become the norm versus the exception. This group essentially represents the rest of the “professional class”.
Lastly 30% will be relatively safe as their careers fall more on the physical, essential or skilled trade areas of the economy.
Innovative Disruption – Been There Done That
Now that we’ve scared everyone to death, let’s look at the bright side; “on the street” so to speak. Let’s for now not be interested in GDP growth and corporate profits; although the expectation is that in the long term these will all increase as these technologies become more common.
Let’s think about us, the people doing the work. One study referenced by the Goldman Report implies that more that 60% of workers today are in jobs that did not even exist 80 years ago. Inevitably the same will happen again. We fear these disruptions because the path ahead looks foggy. If history is our guide eventually we will find ourselves immersed in unprecedented levels of efficiency, creativity and fulfillment that we cannot today even imagine.
However short term pain’s will be inevitable. The pace at which new opportunities arise versus the pace of replacement has not been equal in the past 30-40 years. As such there will be a “displacement gap” that will not be painless for all everyone. Change will occur.
Skill Up in the AI World: Ensuring Job Security Together
Hence the need to understand you have 2 choices:
- Do Nothing, keep on carrying on, whine about life. Maybe most do this and it’s the end of the line for the expansion of humanity.
- Defend your position. Understand that you MUST learn to learn the basics of these new tools at the minimum. Figure out out how they can help you and who knows what amazing opportunities will unfold!